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#18122 01/28/11 07:41 AM
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Spring Flood Outlook
January 27,2011... The National Weather Service has issued an updated spring flood outlook for locations across the upper Midwest. Above normal rainfall early in the fall, combined with snowfall that was above normal for the period from November through mid-January, has led to the potential for significant flooding along many rivers in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The text of the Spring Flood Outlook details a probabilistic forecast, showing percent chances of reaching critical stages at various forecast points along area rivers. There are several factors that will go into determining the eventual river crests this spring at these locations. These factors include the amount of precipitation that falls over the area this spring, how fast the temperatures warm up during the coming months, and any ice jams that may form along the rivers.

The next spring flood outlook will be issued on February 17th. As the rivers rise this spring, detailed information about river levels and crest forecasts can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page.

Minnesota River at Henderson, MN
River Stage Probability of Reaching Stage This Spring Impact at This Level
734.0 ft 95 % The floodwall gates are closed
733.7 ft 97 % Highway 93 may be closed due to high water
733.1 ft >98 % Water begins encroaching on Highway 19 east of Henderson
732 ft >98 % Water begins impacting residences and agricultural buildings north and south of Henderson


CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID JANUARY 27, 2011 – 020111 National Weather Service
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

MINNESOTA RIVER
HENDERSON 734.3 735.1 735.8 736.3 736.7 737.1 737.6 738.3 739.0
(DATUM = 700.00) FLOOD STAGE = 732.0

My comments: Based on this forecast there is about an 90% chance all main roads in and out of Henderson (including Sibley 6 north)other than Highway 19 west will be closed at some point this spring (over 97% chance for Highways 93 and 19). There is about a 50% chance Minnesota River water levels at the deepest points will be about 4 feet over Highway 19 east of Henderson, 3 feet over Highway 93 to the south and 2-3 feet over Sibley County 6 to the north. Last fall the Minnesota River level readings at Henderson were about 739.7 feet above sea level. This current forecast indicates there is about a 3% chance of meeting those levels. High water levels last September were about 4-6 feet from the top of the levee.

Last edited by Lon Berberich; 01/28/11 08:33 AM.
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It should be interesting what comes out tomorrow. I know most of the drainage ditches are running west of town which is a good thing as it looks like a slow thaw. A few weeks ago, I heard one old timer claim if we would get a hard rain and quick thaw that the fish would be swimming in the bank. Yikes.

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Spring Flood Update Press Conference Thursday February 17


SPRING FLOOD UPDATE PRESS CONFERENCE
DPS and National Weather Service Updated Spring Flood Forecast

WHAT: Media availability with officials from the Minnesota Department of Public Safety (DPS), the National Weather Service and the Minnesota departments of Agriculture and Commerce to discuss potential spring flooding, what Minnesotans should be doing to prepare and consider purchasing flood insurance. Officials will also outline what steps have been taken to prepare Minnesota communities.

WHEN: Thursday, February 17, 2:30 p.m.

WHERE: Minnesota Department of Public Safety
Media Room
445 Minnesota Street, Suite 100
Enter through southwest door (adjacent to driveway)

WHO: Kris Eide, Director, Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Dan Luna, National Weather Service Forecast Office Twin Cities
Mike Rothman, Commerce Commissioner
Mike Starkey, Minnesota Department of Agriculture

WHY: A wet fall and winter snow indicate a potential for flooding in Minnesota. The National Weather Service is updating its spring flood forecast for areas along Minnesota, Crow, Mississippi and St. Croix rivers.

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February 17,2011... The National Weather Service has issued an updated spring flood outlook for locations across the upper midwest. Above normal rainfall early in the fall, combined with snowfall that was above normal for the period from November through mid-February, has led to the potential for significant flooding along many rivers in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The text of the Spring Flood Outlook details a probabilistic forecast, showing percent chances of reaching critical stages at various forecast points along area rivers. There are several factors that will go into determining the eventual river crests this spring at these locations. These factors include the amount of precipitation that falls over the area this spring, how fast the temperatures warm up during the coming months, and any ice jams that may form along the rivers.

The next spring flood outlook will be issued on March 3rd. As the rivers rise this spring, detailed information about river levels and crest forecasts can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page.

Minnesota River at Henderson, MN
River Stage Probability of Reaching Stage This Spring Impact at This Level
734.0 ft >98 % The floodwall gates are closed
733.7 ft >98 % Highway 93 may be closed due to high water
733.1 ft >98 % Water begins encroaching on Highway 19 east of Henderson
732 ft >98 % Water begins impacting residences and agricultural buildings north and south of Henderson

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%


HENDERSON 735.9 736.6 736.9 737.3 738.0 738.3 738.8 739.3 740.9
DATUM = 700.00) FLOOD STAGE = 732.0


Last edited by Lon Berberich; 02/17/11 07:41 PM.
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So right now it's a 2% chance the gates won't go in?

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< 2%

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To quote Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber, "So you're saying there's a chance? YEAH!"

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA&feature=related


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Looks like MN river will crest sometime today.

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Spring Flood Outlook
March 3,2011... The National Weather Service has issued an updated spring flood outlook for locations across the upper midwest. Above normal rainfall early in the fall, combined with snowfall that was above normal for this winter, has led to the potential for significant flooding along many rivers in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The text of the Spring Flood Outlook details a probabilistic forecast, showing percent chances of reaching critical stages at various forecast points along area rivers. There are several factors that will go into determining the eventual river crests this spring at these locations. These factors include the amount of precipitation that falls over the area this spring, how fast the temperatures warm up during the coming months, and any ice jams that may form along the rivers.

The next spring flood outlook will be issued on March 10th. As the rivers rise this spring, detailed information about river levels and crest forecasts can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page.

Minnesota River at Henderson, MN
River Stage Probability of Reaching Stage This Spring Impact at This Level
734.0 ft >98 % The floodwall gates are closed
733.7 ft >98 % Highway 93 may be closed due to high water
733.1 ft >98 % Water begins encroaching on Highway 19 east of Henderson
732 ft >98 % Water begins impacting residences and agricultural buildings north and south of Henderson
Record Flood Level: 739.65 Chance of reaching that level this spring: 25%

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...MINNESOTA
CROW...MISSISSIPPI FOR ST PAUL AND DOWNSTREAM AND THE ST CROIX...
IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING LIKLEY AND
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR RECORD FLOODING...

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID MARCH 03, 2011 - 030811
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

HENDERSON 737.0 738.2 738.5 738.9 739.2 739.8 740.1 740.6 741.8
(DATUM = 700.00) FLOOD STAGE = 732.0






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Well, if this holds to be true, I think the chance of a severe flood just increased!

Storm

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